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African Swine Fever Transmission Dynamics: Parameter Estimation and Global Sensitivity Analysis |
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PP: 853-861 |
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doi:10.18576/amis/200401
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Author(s) |
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Filimon Abel Mgandu,
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Abstract |
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| African swine fever (ASF), a highly contagious and often fatal viral disease caused by the African swine fever virus (ASFV), continues to pose a significant threat to pig production systems in many regions of the world. The disease leads to substantial economic losses and challenges in livestock management. This study presents a comprehensive mathematical analysis of the transmission dynamics of ASF. First, we employ a Least square framework to estimate key epidemiological parameters of the model, allowing for the incorporation of prior knowledge and uncertainty quantification. Second, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) in combination with Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients (PRCC) to systematically identify and rank the parameters that exert the greatest influence on model outcomes. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to complement and validate the analytical findings, providing further insight into the disease’s progression under varying parameter scenarios. The results enhance the understanding of ASF transmission mechanisms and highlight critical parameters that could inform targeted control strategies and policy interventions. |
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