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Parameter Estimation and Global Sensitivity Analysis for Transmission Dynamics of Avian Influenza in Humans and Domestic Birds |
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PP: 899-912 |
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doi:10.18576/amis/190415
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Author(s) |
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S. P. Soka,
M. Mayengo,
M. Kgosimore,
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Abstract |
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| The aim of the study was to derive insights on the transmission dynamics and make realistic predictions of avian influenza as influenced by human and domestic birds, accounting for the effects of environmental factors and contribute to mitigation strategies against avian influenza. Steady-state solutions were examined to determine the equilibrium conditions of the system. The basic reproduction number was computed using the next-generation matrix method to characterize the outcomes of the disease transmission dynamics. The least squares and Latin Hypercube Sampling-Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient methods were used to carry out sensitivity analysis of the model to efficiently estimate and identify influential parameters on the model outputs. Numerical simulations were performed to demonstrate the dynamical trends of avian influenza under various scenarios. The research findings revealed that the spread of avian influenza is directly influenced by human interaction with a contaminated environment, the level of infectiousness of birds, and the shedding of the virus by infected birds, all of which are directly proportional to the overall spread of avian influenza disease. The stability conditions established in terms of the basic reproduction number played a critical role in determining the dynamics and severity of influenza outbreaks
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